The Weather, Just Show Up and Find Out
By Trent Loos

As I attended the 3i show last week in Great Bend, KS, the weather certainly played a role. It rained and was wet for the exhibitors and probably kept people away, but I did not hear one single person complain about it. This is a section of the country that nearly forgot what it was like to have anything other than sun rays coming from the heavens and they got some much needed precipitation.

It did cause me to wonder about the impact of weather on our lives? More importantly, what is the impact of a weather forecast on our lives? Without a doubt, Mother Nature has the biggest hand when it comes to having her way. As the old saying goes, “we can’t change the weather”. But in this information age when weather prognostication is a $10 billion industry and there are TV channels devoted totally to forecasting the weather, does that enhance or hamper our daily lives?

Kyle Bauer and I were having breakfast one morning discussing the weather forecast. He shared with me his father’s words of wisdom in regard to the weather. “Don’t worry about the forecast because half the time you won’t cut the hay and it won’t rain and the other half of the time you will cut the hay because there is no forecast of rain and it will rain.” Professor Daniel Sutter from Oklahoma reports that the weather seriously affects between 20 and 40% of the American economy. Interestingly, there are about 4000 professional weather forecasters employed in the United States.

People are very skeptical about weather forecasts. I am fairly certain that no profession is beat on as regularly for being wrong as meteorologists. Although, I also believe that it is one of the few professions where you can be wrong many times and still have a job! What would happen in today’s society if we couldn’t get the weather forecast from the mainstream media? If radio, television and newspapers only discussed the weather in the event of an emergency, would we be affected negatively? Personally, I think we might be better off. I believe that we often avoid activities because of a dubious forecast without consideration for the level of accuracy of the prediction.

Speaking of accuracy in regard to weather forecasts, what is the actual level of predictability in forecasting Mother Nature’s whims? According to most sources, today’s meteorologists are about 80% accurate. Strangely enough, a guy named Robert B. Thomas began making weather forecasts in 1792 with what he calls a “secret formula.” He has traditionally been measured at an 80% rate of accuracy. The only difference in prediction techniques is that Mr. Thomas would make daily predictions for a year or more at one time in what we still call “The Farmers Almanac”. He used sunspots, tides and other natural indicators of what was to come to develop his annual calendar of weather predictions.

Thomas’ technique is similar to some of the indicators my grandfather taught me as a kid:

• There will be three more frosts after the first frog croaks in the spring
• If multiple rabbits are scurrying, it will rain soon
• Ring around the moon, it will rain soon; ring around sun, no rain any time soon
• Whirlwinds spinning clockwise means it will rain soon; if they spin counter clockwise, there will be more dry weather
• Turning leaves on a maple tree indicate forthcoming moisture
• A crescent moon lying on its back means that the moon is “holding water” and there will be no rainRed sky at night is a sailor’s delight; red sky in the morning, sailors take warningThe hair color of wooly worms in the fall indicate the severity of the winter to come
• A milling group of nervous cows often predicts a coming storm
  

While it seems to me that we spend a lot of unnecessary time and money predicting the weather in this country, weather does seem to be an interesting topic. How many conversations do we have in our daily lives that include some discussion of the weather? I would estimate that weather conditions occupy more conversations than any one other topic. With all the technological advances our society has made, the weather seems to be the one component of our life where our only certain outcome is determined by showing up to find out what will happen!

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